The Role of Recent Climate Change in Explaining the Statistical Yield Increase of Maize in Northern Bavaria—A Model Study

Maize yields in many regions of the world have increased significantly since 1960s. The increase is mainly attributed to technological improvements and climate change. On a regional scale recent decades, change has altered growth conditions maize this, turn, influenced changes yield. In order analyze contribution different factors yield changes, obtain model setup that could be used for further analyses development, this study systematically investigated effects change, irrigation, cultivar selection nutrient availability on historical Northern Bavaria. Four sets simulations were conducted with mechanistic plant PROMET, during time period between 1997 2020, resulting compared county statistics. addition, three scenarios simulated determine potentials highly mechanized agricultural region results showed good agreement observed (R2 = 0.76), when considering availability, suggesting an uptake by plants plays key role reproducing statistics main increasing trends. Moreover, other considered individually, such as irrigation selection, not explain levels trends shown scenario demonstrated potential increases due adaptation. response shows trend, progressing, 0–25% irrigating currently grown cultivars 10–50% adapted cultivar; rainfed adaptation consistently level approximately 10%. This highlights importance dynamic consideration course rather than static assumptions parameters, emphasizes second-order